Alvin Kamara among players who will score fewer TDs in 2021

  • Fantasy football, NFL analyst for ESPN.com
  • Member of Pro Football Writers of America
  • Founding director of Pro Football Focus Fantasy
  • 2013 FSTA award winner for most accurate preseason rankings

As you get ready for fantasy football 2021, be sure to get plenty of practice by using our Mock Draft Lobby.

Football statistics can prove hard to predict, but history continues to show that projecting touchdown regression to the mean is significantly easier than you might imagine.

The 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2020 versions of this article provide overwhelming evidence.

Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.

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