TikTok will grow massively worldwide this year, despite government scrutiny

  • TikTok will grow strongly worldwide this year.
  • This growth comes as the app faces scrutiny from multiple governments and even outright bans in several countries.
  • Insider Intelligence analyzes this industry and several others to provide in-depth analyst reports, proprietary forecasts, customizable charts, and more. Learn more about what we offer.

TikTok was one of the winners early in the pandemic, seeing an astronomical 315.0 million downloads in Q1, according to data from Sensor Tower.

But Q2 brought a series of controversies and government scrutiny worldwide: The app was officially banned in June in its biggest market, India, before narrowly avoiding a ban in its second-biggest market, the US. And a growing list of other countries have pondered banning or otherwise penalizing the app due to national security and privacy concerns.

Despite its troubles, we still forecast that TikTok will see massive user growth this year in the markets we break out, provided it is able to continue operating in the same way once its ownership is finalized. This year, the user base will more than double in three markets: Norway will lead the pack with 248.7% growth, followed by Russia (140.9%) and Italy (104.5%).

In absolute figures, the US will add the most users, at 30.3 million. The US user base will be shy of doubling, however, with a growth rate of 85.3% year over year (YoY), due to strong growth the platform already saw in the US in 2019. Next year, markets in Western Europe will lead in growth, with the number of users growing by over a third in France (35.2%), Italy (35.0%), and Germany (34.6%).

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